>> "Polls Going South," this week on "Firing Line."

>> And let's make the next two years bigger, better, stronger than ever before.

>> President Trump is crisscrossing the country in the final days of the midterm campaign, racing to avert an Election Day disaster for Republicans.

>> How we doing, Georgia?

>> While Democrats look to Southern states for salvation.

>> The road to a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress is in the South.

>> A lot of states in the South have had Republican rule for 30 years, and you can just feel it wanting to change.

>> Jennifer Palmieri served as White House Communications Director for President Obama and for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign.

>> If there's one thing that sort of Democrats who don't live in the South don't appreciate about the South is just the critical importance in people's lives of faith.

She's been traveling across the South as host of a new YouTube documentary series, "Long Play."

>> I love the South, but now, the South is the political epicenter of the country.

>> Examining the changing politics in the states that could decide control of the U.S.

Senate and the future of the Democratic Party.

What does Jennifer Palmieri say now?

>> "Firing Line with Margaret Hoover" is made possible in part by... Robert Granieri, Vanessa and Henry Cornell The Margaret and Daniel Loeb Foundation The Beth and Ravenel Curry Foundation Cliff and Laurel Asness And by the following... Jennifer Palmieri, welcome to Firing Line.

So happy to be here.

The much-anticipated 2026 midterm elections are just around the corner.

As you look at the field, what is your final assessment of the political topography going into Tuesday?

I feel that it would be a massive blue wave if it were not for money and gerrymandering.

There's just no question.

Like, Democrats are not going to win seats they should have won because of gerrymandering.

Like, in Tennessee, for example, where they divided up Memphis.

It's gonna be very hard for Justin Pearson, who's running in Memphis, to win that race now.

I mean, he may, because Black voters are so upset and energized, but there's... Democrats are gonna lose seats they shouldn't.

- President Trump has been recently activated and has barnstormed many, many of the states that he won by double digits in 2024 because Senate races and House races are tightening in all of these districts.

Take a look at this clip.

>> We're making hundreds and hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars.

No, I could just see the fake headlines.

President Trump is talking about all the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump.

That'll be the headline.

But I said, "I don't give a damn I'm gonna say it.

We're making a frickin' fortune."

>> The truth of the matter is that the average price of gas in the second Trump administration is now higher than the average price of gas the entire Biden administration.

It's just anywhere you go it's the first thing on people's mouths depending on where they're at.

That's what you've seen.

Gas or diesel.

Yeah it's it is.

And I know when I worked for you know both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama there was during Obama we had a spike in gas and David Plath the president's senior advisor was just out of his mind you know existential crisis high gas prices are an existential crisis for anyone that is in charge I mean there is no bigger indicator in politics that you're gonna have a problem it's then high gas prices and in these arguments are hurting Republicans across the country like clearly every day that he gives a speech he is gonna say something that is going to hurt a Republican somewhere.

I mean they're of course betting that he can at least gin up the base and get that base to turn out.

Or they're just feeding his ego which that also happens not just with him you know presidents want to campaign they want to get out there.

I see.

I can do some good why aren't they using me?

Presidents so want to get out there that your former boss President Obama is actually out there.

He's out there, yeah.

And he's also all over the campaign trail.

You spend a lot of time in your new YouTube series, Long Play, discussing the importance of the Black vote and particularly in the South and you know you evidence concerns that Democrats aren't doing enough to turn out the Black vote.

Yeah.

Is Obama still the best weapon for Black voters?

He's a really good weapon for Black voters.

But I would say there is not any substitute in trying to win over Black voters than you, than the candidate themselves, making the effort, making the appeal, showing up.

I mean, you can't just waltz in with Barack Obama in a big arena and think you've done your job.

But it is true that Obama does still... he just still hits it with... and gets people really excited.

And there's a nostalgia to it.

There's a pride to it.

It does still work.

>> Yeah.

Your new series, "Long Play," on YouTube, explores the rapidly changing political dynamics in the South and the opportunity for Democrats to take advantage of the South in what has, for 50 years, been a sort of neglected region for Democrats.

You begin in Georgia and you say if you cannot win in the South, you're not going to be able to win in America.

Why do you start in Georgia?

It's the battleground.

It's a fascinating place because it's different from the rest of the South.

It's, you know, economically it's more successful.

It's not the most diverse state, but it is... whites are a bare majority in that state.

There's a lot of different ethnicities there.

And the Civil Rights Movement, you know, so much of it came through Georgia.

And that still resonates today.

And so, like, that's... Decisions that... This time period that we're in now feels like another big, you know, moment of decision and a moment of change.

And I think the decisions that get made now in the South are gonna reverberate for decades, too.

Claims of election fraud, the big lie, 2020 election that Donald Trump claims he still won.

Uh, for-- for-- you know, for that argument, Georgia is still one of the epicenters -for the-- for the big lie.

-Yeah.

I mean, so much so that President Trump sent his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, to go look at voting machines -nine months ago.

-Yeah.

Is that lie, that Donald Trump won Georgia in 2020, still resonant?

No, it's not.

And we went back to Georgia to check in on voting just last week.

And we had to work hard to find people on the other side who were still believing the conspiracy theories in Georgia.

We did, but we had to work hard to find them.

It's not... And Georgia does have a lot of pride.

Brad Raffensperger, the Republican Secretary of State, a lot of pride in how much work they have done and how public they have been to show there is no fraud here.

And they're laying down a very strong public record of how there is no fraud here, anticipating that the Trump administration will bring trouble to Georgia and they're going to be prepared to fight it in the courts.

Brad Raffensperger, of course, was the Secretary of State that President Trump called asking for 11,780 votes.

It's hard to mention the South and voting in the South and Black voting in the South without asking you about the Supreme Court's Louisiana versus Calais decision, which significantly narrowed voting rights and protections against racial vote dilution.

Republicans attempted to redraw Georgia's maps.

And civil rights advocates, and maybe even normal Republicans -in the background... -Yeah.

...pushed back against this, and ultimately, the effort didn't move forward.

And I wonder if, you know, you're telling a little bit of a... what feels like a positive story about Georgia.

I mean, is that also evidence that efforts to restrict minority representation have actually galvanized voters against it?

The evidence so far, they definitely have.

So after Clay was in the spring, and a number of state legislatures across the country, but also in the South, went into session to redraw maps to eliminate majority Black districts.

And in Georgia, as you noted, they backed off.

The Republican governor there, Brian Kemp, called a special session.

Black Voters Matter and other groups like circled the Capitol.

It's like, "You want to rethink that?"

And they're, "Yes, we do."

And they backed down.

And they backed down.

South Carolina, interestingly, I thought this was such a remarkable thing, the Republican leader of the state Senate said, "We need there to be a competitive Democratic Party.

It is not good for us.

It is not good for democracy if there's not some kind of competition, exchange of ideas, debating."

And South Carolina backed off.

So some states, a lot of states did do it, Tennessee notably, because Tennessee got rid of the last remaining... There was one district that was majority Black, it's Memphis.

It was the last remaining Democratic seat.

And they, their attempt, they did, they divided up into three congressional districts.

Justin Pearson is very high profile, young Black legislator, state legislator is running, like there's a chance he pulls it out because people are so motivated, but Black turnout post-Clay decision has been up across the board, and it's been up in early vote, too.

- Let's go to Texas.

- Yeah.

- Latino voters, particularly men, helped return President Trump to the White House in 2024.

- Huge jump.

- They're considered the country's most important swing voter.

A Unidos US poll found 67% of registered Hispanic voters disapprove of the job that Trump is doing.

But Latino voters are not necessarily sold on the Democratic Party.

So how will you read a shift in Hispanic voters in Texas?

Will it be, I mean, is it a Republican riptide or a blue wave?

Yeah, it's a Republican riptide.

Yeah.

Yeah, I think it's, when we talked to, we went to Texas, talked to Hispanic voters, a couple of men that owned a construction company, they had voted for Trump in the past.

One had voted for him all three times.

They thought that the border was out of control under Biden.

They were concerned about the economy.

And they're voting for James Tallarico and for Gina Hinojosa, who's the gubernatorial candidate there on the Democratic side, because they're upset about immigration.

It's disrupting their business.

They can't, people won't show up for work because whether they're documented or not, they're worried they're gonna get taken in.

- Because of ICE.

- Because of ICE.

They're sort of morally outraged.

The time we were there, a man had been killed in Houston by ICE.

And then it's just the economy not doing well.

So it is, there is a rejection of Trump.

And I think Tallarico and Hinojosa are particularly skilled and good candidates in Texas.

But you know, politicians just don't have a lot of credibility right now.

Government's not getting anything done in most states or in Congress.

And the bar is very high for Democrats to prove that they are ready to offer something different.

And I don't think we should take away from a blue wave election that that means... It means Democrats are in a better position, but there's still a lot of work to do.

It's like you're given a chance.

It's still a referendum on Trump.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Is this a year... It's a referendum in Trump with good Democratic candidates that can take advantage of it is what I think.

But it's nothing permanent.

There's people of all political persuasions, kind of socially conservative, particularly in Texas.

Religious identity, the Catholicism and the Latino vote, but also a lot of white evangelical Protestants in Texas as well.

Tallarico is able to generate resonance with some of those voters unexpectedly.

I did speak with three women.

One who was like a never Trump Republican, the other two were just Republicans.

Two were evangelical Christians.

They volunteered that they were voting for Tallarico and Gina Hinojosa.

You know, one woman said, "I would not want Paxton, "Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, "living next door to me.

"I would be happy to have James Tallarico "living next door to me.

"I would be happy to have him "because he was a junior high school teacher.

"I would be happy to have him teach my children."

You know, they felt good about him.

And I think if there's one thing that sort of Democrats who don't live in the South, don't appreciate about the South, is just the critical importance in people's lives of faith.

You know, you shouldn't be surprised to hear that people's religious faith is the driver of everything in their life because it's their religious faith.

And, you know, and they, and it just, I think people just really, they discount it as sometimes as naive or foolish or something that you can shake people out of.

It's like, this is their faith.

And it draws, and in the South, you know, the church community, it's just, it's what communities come around on.

It's just, it's what holds families.

It's that and football, right?

That's a whole families together.

And I think people really, that's the biggest thing people misunderstand about the South.

If you were a Democrat, not from there.

>> Let me ask you about North Carolina.

>> Yeah.

>> Because North Carolina has emerged as a state that is probably most likely to flip... >> Right.

>> ...that Senate seat.

Of course, the former governor, Roy Cooper, is most likely to pick up that state.

Is it that Democrats in North Carolina are doing something right, or Republicans have just gone so far off base?

>> Both.

Both.

There's two kind of interesting things happening in North Carolina.

Roy Cooper has been a statewide elected official for 40 years.

Yeah.

40 years.

He's been on the ballot for 40 years.

Yeah.

So they are... people are used to voting for him.

People know Roy Cooper.

They love him.

And he does not get caught up in national democratic rant.

The other thing that's happening is that the Republicans have so gerrymandered the state legislature and the seats in Congress that North Carolinians are paying attention to that.

And the Democrats have done a good job saying, "Your costs are high because they've coalesced power from themselves and they're not doing anything to help you."

And I think that the Democrats in North Carolina will break the supermajority of the state legislature.

And some people even think they may win a chamber back.

So the Democrats in North Carolina, even at the state legislative level in particular, are very savvy at making this argument and making a big push there.

There's a lot happening in North Carolina.

>> All right, let's go to your home state.

You're from Mississippi.

>> Well, I say I was born there because, you know, you're not from there if your parents aren't from there.

>> You were born in Mississippi.

>> I was born in Mississippi.

I love the state.

>> The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1982.

>> 1982.

John Stennis.

>> Both parties are pouring money into the state.

This Democratic Senate candidate, Scott Colom, has had former Vice President Kamala Harris campaign on his behalf.

Bill Clinton will be campaigning for him before the election on Tuesday.

What do you actually believe the chances for a state that Trump won by more than 20 points just two years ago to elect a Democratic senator?

>> The chances have been low, but I think that he could do it because of the kind of campaign that he is running, because he's not running a standard Mississippi Democrat campaign, which is, "Keep the National Democrats out of here.

They are unpopular and we're going to run as moderates.

And the problem is with Mississippi, Scott Colom's biggest opponent in Mississippi is not the incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who has a very low profile.

She basically doesn't campaign.

She's like kind of a non-entity.

It's inertia and people thinking politics doesn't matter here.

It doesn't, you know, it doesn't matter.

Whoever I vote for, it doesn't matter.

Whether you're Republican or Democrat, they're like, I don't need to vote because it's going to be a Republican.

It doesn't matter.

Nothing's going to change.

>> So the challenge is, for Democrats, has been activating Democratic voters so that they believe it's possible?

>> That they believe it's possible and that -- When I saw that Kamala Harris was going to Mississippi, I was like, "What are you all doing?"

Because she's not -- You know, lover -- She's not popular there.

She's really not popular there.

But they said -- And this is when I talked to Scott Colom this week about it.

He's like, "I need attention and energy."

And these Democrats, Kamala Harris, Bill Clinton, Pete Buttigieg was there when I was there in the Gulf Coast, Mississippi.

Senator Warnock, he's brought all these national Democrats there.

And he's like, "Yeah, yes, the Republicans are attacking me.

"They're gonna attack me anyway, "but I'm getting something out of this.

"I'm getting energy."

The crowd in Biloxi, Mississippi, first of all, there were maybe 600 people on a Tuesday night in Biloxi.

Like, this doesn't happen in Mississippi.

They're just out of their minds for Pete Buttigieg.

They're like so excited that Pete Buttigieg is there.

'Cause this doesn't happen in Mississippi.

And so there's, he's like, I need energy.

I need people to be excited.

I need, and it's like the biggest swing voter in Mississippi is a Black woman who's gonna convince 10 other people to vote.

Like, that is what he needs to do.

So I actually think the reason why I think it could work is the polls are not capturing the electorate that Scott Colom built.

- 'Cause they haven't modeled an electorate that has looked like this electorate previously.

- That has looked like an excited Democratic base in Mississippi.

So that is why the Democratic win in Mississippi with a Republican incumbent senator and then a Black man who's sort of a newcomer to the state politics, that signals something really different.

- Yeah, I mean, anecdotally... - Even more than Texas, I feel like.

That is like stuff is possible here.

People are open to new things.

- Totally.

After the Civil War, of course, Democrats owned the South.

- Yeah.

- By 1991, when it came to the presidency, of course, the situation had already reversed, reversed in 1964.

Firing Line with William F. Buckley Jr.

in 1991 invited two Southern Democrats onto the program for an episode entitled, "Is the Democratic Party Falling Apart in the South?"

Take a listen to part of that program here.

Mr.

Buckley, I think that one of the problems we Democrats have had in our presidential politics is we have let you Republicans suck us into questions like abortion and flag burning and things like that and not concentrated on economic and social matters and matters of social justice.

And rather than talk about that abortion and those kinds of issues, I think we need to turn our focus at least in presidential politics to another set of issues.

>> You mean to questions that you would bother to discuss.

>> That's right, exactly.

And not questions you would want to discuss.

>> That was in 1991, when the South was considered lost to Democrats.

And there they're arguing, "Stop talking about culture war issues.

Talk about economics."

Of course, within a year, a Southern Democratic governor from Arkansas had been nominated by the Democratic Party and put the South back into play in many ways.

Is there any similarity to that moment and now?

>> Yeah, I think that's the constant.

That was Don Fowler from South Carolina.

He eventually went on to be the party chair for the Democrats nationally.

That is the central tension that has always been for Democrats post-Civil Rights era, right?

In the South.

So it feels to me like the South, you know, that was 30 years.

A lot of states in the South have had Republican rule for 30 years.

And you can just feel it wanting to change, but it's so ossified on the Democratic side in so many of these states.

And when I worked for Bill Clinton, I worked for Barack Obama, and it would really distress me.

I would be like, "What about Mississippi and Alabama?"

It's like, "Well, they're never gonna vote for us."

It's like, "Well, but they're part of America."

Also, things are terrible in Mississippi and Alabama.

And I think this is why candidates that are from battleground states, or red states, Democratic candidates, on the national level, do the best because they have had to make an argument to win over people other than Democrats.

And also, you know, if you really want to lead America, you should be making your argument in all parts of America.

>> I have to ask you about this story about Democratic interference in the Alaska Senate primary.

There are Democratic operatives that appear to have intervened in the Alaska Senate race to find a candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, with the exact same name but for the initial, to run against the incumbent Republican senator, Daniel S. Sullivan.

What is your take on this story?

And how does that-- and does that interfere-- does that interfere in some way with this argument that Democrats are on the side of election integrity and Republicans are not?

>> Yeah, I mean, it-- like, a little bit, you know?

It's like there's a tarnishing there, I guess I would say.

But I don't think-- apparently, this is all legal, so I don't think it's going to affect the legal case in Alaska.

Although, some of the reaction, you know, you just never know.

Some of the reaction has been like, "Oh, Democrats are playing hardball.

Good for them.

'Bout time," you know?

Like, I also see that happening.

Alaska, wild place.

>> As we approach Tuesday, how are you advising and how do you think about what could be election shenanigans, especially in the counting of the vote in states that are very slow to count votes, like California, for example?

Republicans, over the last several years, have significantly lost confidence in the integrity of elections.

I think there are a lot of reasons for that.

However, confidence in local officials, for Republicans and Democrats, state by state, is still enormously high, over 90% in most jurisdictions.

So it strikes me that encouraging individuals to look towards their local officials, as opposed to national figures, is an appropriate set of messaging.

But how do you think, as a messaging professional, about what could be the challenges around the counting of the votes come next Tuesday?

The heroes of this era are going to be the local officials that ran elections in the '20s.

So I happen to know a lot about this.

I know a lot about the networks that are out there to protect elections.

And it is like there is a fortification there that I think is going to withstand whatever kind of challenges.

So it's just the Maricopa County, for example, in Arizona, which is where Phoenix is.

Those people are heroes.

What they went through in 20, what they went through in 2022 in terms of people, you know, their lives were threatened.

So there is a network.

All of these county officials talk to each other all the time.

They've been working with each other for the last six years to beat back whatever conspiracy theory there is.

There's a network of the secretaries of state, which are like, you know, Brad Raffensperger in Georgia, Cisco Aguilar in Nevada.

And then there's a whole group of lawyers.

Every possible scenario has been thought through by a lawyer, and there is a lawsuit ready to get filed.

So... >> So you have a high degree of confidence that whatever -- if there is any... >> Yeah.

>> ...uncertainty around the outcome of specific elections across the country, that there will be a ground force to help ensure that the election is... >> Yeah.

>> ...legally executed.

>> That the people who win... >> Administrated.

>> ...will be sworn in.

That it can be-- I mean, I think the next few weeks, the month, the two, three, four weeks after the election could be crazy and bumpy, and, I mean, you can see the Justice Department filing the suit in Alaska, targeting California in particular, because they know California is message-wise is vulnerable because it takes so long.

California takes forever to count.

It's crazy.

I have no idea why this happened.

It's crazy.

It's crazy.

You know, Brad Raffensperger has so much disdain for California because he's like, Georgia, they will know, he's like, you will know on Tuesday night who won the state of Georgia.

And there's no excuse for California not to count their votes faster.

I don't actually understand what the problem is.

But, you know, so they're targeting places that have vulnerabilities.

Yeah.

So I think it's going to, I don't mean to, and I'm not being naive or dismissive of the threat.

They will really try and it will get crazy and there are things we have never seen before.

But there is a like hardy network of lawyers and state officials and local elected local officials that are ready to protect the vote.

And I do feel like they will.

Right.

Jen Palmieri, thank you for your insights.

Thank you for joining me on Firing Line.

>> Such a delight... >> "Firing Line with Margaret Hoover" is made possible in part by... Robert Granieri, Vanessa and Henry Cornell The Margaret and Daniel Loeb Foundation The Beth and Ravenel Curry Foundation Cliff and Laurel Asness And by the following... You're watching PBS.