With which party will Nevada's Latino voters cast their ballots this midterm election?

This week on Nevada Week, the answer is up for debate.

♪♪♪ Support for Nevada Week is provided by Senator William H. Hernstadt.

-Welcome to Nevada Week.

I'm Amber Renee Dixon.

According to the Pew Research Center, in 2020, Latinos made up nearly 20% of eligible voters in Nevada, ranking Nevada's Latino electoral share 6th in the country.

Once considered a stronghold for Democrats, the Pew Research Center found that across the country, it's Republicans who are making gains with Hispanic voters.

In 2020, Hispanics accounted for 8% of the Republican vote, up from 6% in 2016.

Still, President Joe Biden won the voting bloc overall in 2020 with 59% of the Hispanic vote compared to 38% for former President Donald Trump.

This November, Latino voters could determine two key statewide races including one that may tip the balance of power in the US Senate.

Both Democrats and Republicans are in hot pursuit of the Latino vote in Nevada, evident in their Spanish language ads on television and radio.

(Speaking Spanish) -Joining us to talk more about the Latino vote in Nevada is David Damore, Chair of the Department of Political Science at UNLV; John Tuman, a professor of Political Science at UNLV; Jose Solorio, a political consultant who's worked on several Democratic campaigns; and Frankie Rodriguez, Director of Nevada's Lexit Chapter which advocates for Latinos to exit the Democratic Party.

But first, some insight I'd like our panel to respond to from an interview I did with Peter Guzman, President of the Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce.

The Latino vote in Nevada has historically been Democratic.

What do you think about where it might go this election?

(Peter Guzman) Well, look, you know, I know that there's a lot in the press about Hispanics running away from the Democratic Party and running towards the Republican Party.

I want to slow the brakes on that because, as an organization that's been around over 45 years, I meet with a lot of Hispanic people.

We are the Hispanic Chamber.

We're involved with them every day.

And here's what I'm hearing: There definitely is a group leaving the Democratic Party.

They're not necessarily running to the Republican Party; they're kind of hanging out in that middle.

And when you see the numbers of the nonpartisans and independents, I believe a lot of them are parked right there, which means their votes are up for grab.

Furthermore, I, ironically, have been meeting with a lot of Latinas, a lot of soccer moms I call them.

They're furious.

They're furious that schools were closed and that their kids felt, you know-- They feel like their kids got a little left behind.

We already have a history of, you know, being measured low in education.

Let's face it.

I mean, I want to dance around it, but we're like 47th, 46th.

We're always down at the bottom.

And so I think people are really paying attention now.

And that makes it a more informed voter.

And so that voter is up for grabs.

-So those Latinas, soccer moms you're talking about, who are they blaming?

-When you see them running away or leaving the Democratic Party, it's because they're blaming somebody, right?

So-- And that's how it works.

When you're a leader, you know, you get praised when things are good; and when things aren't so good, you're gonna get some blame on that.

And so, yeah, I think there's some blaming going on.

But I think what's really going on is a lot of paying attention.

No longer can the Hispanic vote just be assumed to be going one way, in my opinion.

-In your opinion, have Democrats assumed that they're going to have the Hispanic vote?

-I think both parties do a bad job of assuming that they have these certain demographics, and they don't work very hard-- So what happens is they don't work very hard to gain it back or to gain who they don't think they have.

And so in other words, Hispanics have notoriously been ignored, and I don't see that happening as much anymore.

I'm getting calls from both parties to always say, Hey, can we be here, can we be there, to try to get out in front of some Hispanics now, which that didn't happen as often.

And we don't invite any candidates to our luncheons or our breakfasts.

That's what my mentor Otto Mérida taught me: During the election cycle, let's see who wants to be around us.

And so our last breakfast had 36 candidates show up.

-And were those luncheon attendees mostly Democrats or Republicans?

-They were from both sides.

-Back to the soccer moms.

Why is the Latin Chamber of Commerce hearing from them?

-It's funny that you say that.

Because when I was asked to take over this position, I assumed that my day to day was going to be just small business, which I'm very passionate about.

I've been mentored from the founder, Otto Mérida, and he did always explain to me, We're more than a Chamber.

The small business community, of course, views us for all kinds of things; but our community, the Hispanic community, views us as much more than a Chamber.

They view us as a safe haven, a place where if they need to know about immigration stuff, they come here.

They know they're not gonna get picked up; they know they can come talk to me and be safe.

And so that's heavy on my shoulders.

I can't just be about small business; I have to be about the entire community.

And I'm proud to do that.

I am, and so that's why these moms are coming to us, because they know we have access to the School District, to the Superintendent, to electeds.

And so they come and they want to talk about it.

And after, you know, when we started breaking out of COVID, they really started showing up here saying, Listen, we're not going to go for a closure again, how can you help us, and things of that nature.

-On the small business side, what are you hearing about where that vote might go?

-Small business community is pretty furious as well.

I mean, there was a closure, right?

Which means they couldn't open their business and conduct business.

I don't like to judge other people's decision makings harshly that way when it's something that we never had before.

So I understand the pandemic was difficult; however, closing businesses was extreme.

And I'm hearing from my members, and my members are furious.

And so they're not necessarily telling me which way they're voting, but they kind of are, right?

They kind of are telling me that they're upset.

So somebody's gonna pay a price for that.

How it goes, ultimately, we don't know yet.

-All right.

So David Damore, decades in Political Science at UNLV, you've written extensively about Nevada politics, recently coauthoring a book about Latinos in Nevada.

I saw you nodding your head several times throughout that interview.

What stood out to you?

(David Damore) I think what stood out to me was this idea that Latinos are certain issue-based voters.

They're not.

They're responding to the political environment.

And you go back a decade, Democrats have done a really good job on the immigration issue to mobilize Latino vote, particularly in Nevada, and then they didn't deliver, right?

Failure in 2013.

We look at Latino turnout in 2014.

Horrible across the board, but particularly bad in Nevada.

Republicans sweep here.

Now you're seeing response to the economic issues, which are salient for everyone here.

In particular, this idea of education, small businesses being the ladder for economic mobility and upward mobility.

And that's something very salient to the Latino voters here.

And if they're seeing policies that are obstructing that, that's going to be the response.

-Jose, I saw you raise your eyebrows.

(Jose Solorio) So I've been-- I'm an immigrant.

My parents are immigrants.

I was born here.

Been in Nevada since 1970.

So I can tell you from perspective, the Latino voting population has increased year after year after year.

And so where there wasn't much attention being paid to the Latino vote, now there is.

But the issues that the soccer moms I'm talking to, those soccer moms are talking to me about jobs and about education and about opportunity.

And then don't necessarily place the blame.

They want to know where the opportunity is and who's going to represent them.

So my goal is to, eventually, to provide the information to the Latino population to make the right decisions, to help the Democratic Party continue to do what they've been doing, which is to address some of the issues.

Do they have a ways to go?

Yes.

Have they delivered?

Absolutely.

So the future is bright for Latinos in Southern Nevada because now we're starting to make a difference in where we are and in what we do.

We have a Latino superintendent, Jesus Jara.

We have a Latino president of CSN, Federico Zaragoza.

These two gentlemen are doing a great job and providing opportunities for the young Latinos.

47% of K-12 students are Latino.

And by the way, "Latino" in Southern Nevada means 80% Mexican-American background.

Those are the Latinos, and they're starting to make a difference.

And which party delivers to them consistently is going to get their vote.

They're no longer going to be fooled by mixed messages.

-Which lends itself to the idea of a nonpartisan move.

What do you think about that, John?

(John Tuman) You know, it's hard to parse out.

This is definitely a narrative that there has been some movement towards sort of nonpartisan identification among Latinos.

I think, as a social scientist, I want to see a little more data on that.

I think on the issues, the most recent polling data suggests that inflation is the top issue in the last two polls of Latinos in Nevada.

Jobs and the economy came in at number two.

I don't want to minimize the importance of small business owners in the Latino community, but it's a much more diverse community.

And we know that the sectors that Latinos are employed in are still overwhelmingly in hospitality, in the services, and then in construction.

Those three sectors are booming right now.

It's a very, very tight labor market.

And to be sure, I think some Latinos are concerned about inflation and whether or not their wages are raising or increasing at the same right rate as prices.

But this is a very tight labor market right now.

And it's one where workers have a lot of leverage.

And so I think that is an issue that might potentially work in favor of Democrats in this election cycle.

The other thing I would highlight is if you look at what most people spend money on--Latinos and also others who are on somewhat fixed incomes--it's rent, it's gas, and then food.

And the silver lining here, I think, is that gas prices have come down all across the valley.

And this is something that you see when you're driving all the time.

I mean, we wish that we had better public transportation, but most people are still driving.

And I think the relief in gas prices is probably going to make a little bit of difference, I think, in the psychology of voters in this election cycle around inflation.

-Frankie, what are you hearing, whether it be from Latina soccer moms or Latinos in general?

(Frankie Rodriguez) You know, it's very interesting because, adding on to what you were saying, so many of them are so concerned, and they're paying attention to exactly what's happening.

They're realizing that what they value is actually not being protected.

They're coming out there-- It's important for jobs, it's important how much they're paying for food, how much they're paying for their mortgage, and they're not seeing any of that reflected in the policies that are coming from Democrats.

They're seeing-- As they're now paying more attention, they're seeing that they're actually making it worse with the policies that they're choosing, instead of actually looking at what's going to be an actual productive policy that's going to help the entire nation, not just Nevada, actually move forward and get through this crisis that we're in.

And along with education, I've been to so many school board meetings.

I've been to rallies.

And all of these parents, it's not just the soccer moms, they want to make sure that their kids are actually getting a strong education.

They want to make sure that they're learning their mathematics, their English, their science, their biology, every important subject that they need to thrive as an adult when they enter the workforce.

And that's not what they're seeing.

That's not what is being reflected by the school board and the curriculum that's being offered to them.

And they're seeing it as they're losing their parental rights to teach their kids what they really should be learning.

And it's a cycle.

If you're not getting the education you need, you cannot help the economy when you become an adult and actually enter the workforce as a strong employee.

-Jose, how well-- You want to add something to that?

-Go ahead.

-How well do you think Democrats have done at holding on to the Latino vote in Nevada?

-So I think I want to start out by saying the Latinos are looking at issues that are important to their family, that are important to their future in their jobs, and the opportunities for their kids.

So I'll agree that that is the case.

But one thing that they're upset about and they haven't forgiven is when a presidential candidate walked down some escalators and said Mexico sends its worst criminals, rapists, drug runners.

They lost us.

They lost the Latino vote right there and then for most of us who are paying attention.

Because if you don't value us from where we come from, then you don't value us enough to include us in your leadership.

And so what I want to talk about is where is Hispanic leadership today?

It's within the Democratic Party.

We have the first Latina in the whole entire United States to serve in the Senate.

That's a Latina in Nevada, Democrat.

We have Lisa Cano who has been appointed lieutenant governor.

We have assemblywomen like Selena Torres.

So we have much leadership within the Democratic Party.

So we're part of that effort to help the community and to help ourselves.

I don't see that on the other side.

There is no Latinos, Latinas in the Republican leadership, in the party here in Nevada or Las Vegas.

-Do you want to respond to that, Frankie?

-I do.

And the first thing that I want to respond to is this idea that, you know, the former President said that all of these terrible people were coming across the border, and that was a representation of Latinos.

And this is what's so frustrating to so many people on both sides, because they're realizing that so many things are being taken out of context.

If you actually hear that entire speech and everything that he said, he's not referencing everyone in the Latino community.

He's talking about the actual drug cartel that's coming in, the people that are bringing in drugs, the people that are coming in illegally.

There's a Fentanyl crisis happening at the border right now that isn't being spoken about.

And this is killing our people.

This is killing our children.

There is sex trafficking happening.

And these are the people that he's talking about.

There's a difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration.

Because when you have it legally, you can do these background checks.

You can make sure that these families are coming in safely.

They're protecting the kids that are coming with them.

When you have illegal immigration, it's completely open to all of these criminals that are coming in.

And that's-- It's a very misleading piece of information to say that.

Because when you watch the full speech that he says, you can actually hear everything that he says.

-I watched the full speech.

And the reason many Republican friends that I have that are Latino, left the Republican Party.

Because there's always an excuse for what he says, or let me clarify this.

When the leadership of the Republican Party doesn't respect us and then they try to come back with, Okay, well, you didn't listen to the whole speech.

That's not what he meant.

So we're being left behind within one party.

The other party?

Can they do better?

Absolutely.

Can Democrats do better in addressing Latino issues and general community issues?

Absolutely.

But today, the party that's helping the most is the Democratic Party.

-Will you expand on that, though.

Because in our phone conversations, you had mentioned you thought that maybe Democrats had taken the Latino vote for granted a bit.

-So, yeah.

In past elections, I've heard high ranking officials say something like, Well, why invest in the Latino vote when who are they going to vote for anyway?

Well, that's the wrong attitude to take.

What we need to take into account is what are the needs of our entire community, what are the needs of 30% of our community which is Latino, and how can we meet our community needs?

And how can Latinos be part of that conversation, whether they're Republicans or Democrats?

How can-- How can we do better?

That's what needs to be found out.

And the party that does best in that is going to get the Latino vote, and they're going to win.

-I want to be fair, Frankie.

Do you want to respond to that?

-I do.

And you are absolutely entitled to how you feel, but this is the problem: There is so much misdirection and misleading happening from the Democratic Party.

This is why so many Latino families are so frustrated, because they don't trust information coming from anywhere.

They don't trust information coming from politicians.

They don't trust it from mainstream media.

Because they just want the truth.

And if there was transparency, if there were clips of things-- You know, obviously no one is perfect, and we're not here to apologize.

But we're here to make sure that the proper policies are put into place to keep our Americans safe.

-John, you wanted to say something?

-Yeah.

I just wanted to say briefly that some recent focus groups that were done by Emerson College, along with a poll, showed that, you know, there has definitely been damage done by Trump and the Republican Party to the perception about the party and its willingness to sort of do outreach and to represent the Latino community in a positive light.

Among those people who said they were thinking about voting Republican or had in 2020, they clearly acknowledged that they were conflicted about it and that they were doing so only because of a perception that somehow the Republican Party or Trump might do a better job delivering on economic issues.

But there was a clear acknowledgement of how conflicted they felt because of the incendiary rhetoric that the former President used.

And I think, you know, any candidate who has sort of tied himself closely, or herself, themself to the former President, that is potentially a liability because there's a sort of a deficit there I would argue in terms of perceptions.

There was all that negative rhetoric, I think, has had a really lasting influence.

And that's what we see in focus groups and also in the polling data.

One other point very quickly on education is that in the two most recent polls, it's clear that the vast majority of Latinos trust Democrats more than Republicans on education issues, a whole range of them.

-All right.

And as we did mention, there are two Nevada races that have grabbed national attention this election cycle.

In The race for Governor, Democrat Steve Sisolak is the incumbent against Republican challenger and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

The latest polls, according to polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, shows Sisolak receiving 44.8% of the vote, with Lombardo receiving 42.7%.

And in the race for US Senate, Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto faces Republican challenger and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt.

FiveThirtyEight shows Cortez Masto receiving 45.4% of the vote in that race, with Laxalt receiving 41.7%.

So it is close.

How crucial in your opinion, David, will the Latino vote be in Nevada this November?

-Oh, absolutely.

I mean, you're gonna have races that come down a couple points.

And so I think the sort of understated point of this is there's a lot of mobilization that can still occur.

And you look at the rules, and Nevada has very, very liberal voting laws.

So polling is great, but people can show up on election day, register to vote, and vote.

And we saw that last time.

And the Republicans actually did a nice job with that.

That's how they ended up flipping the Senate seat in Green Valley was all that late voting.

So there's this-- Nevada, despite all its tension, there's under--lack--less than expected political participation.

So there's enough.

Both parties have the opportunity to make the electorate bigger.

And Latino votes are a big part of that story.

-I wanted to get to needs.

Everybody here mentioned jobs, the economy, education as issues that are on the forefront, at the forefront of the Latino voters' minds.

But those are issues that impact everybody, regardless of race and ethnicity.

What are some of the issues that have historically defined the Latino voting population?

And how important are those issues now?

Frankie, I'll start with you.

-I think one of the biggest things is our Christian values.

We feel that they're being attacked, they're being villainized.

You know, the fact that we-- As Christians, you're going to naturally have more conservative values.

And I think that's what a lot of these families are noticing, that the values that the Democratic Party is more focused on don't actually line up with our natural Latino values as Christians as, you know, being pro-family, being pro-marriage, being pro-life.

And a lot of these things are being vilified and being attacked.

And it's making us feel like everything that we grew up with and what we value most is no longer valued.

-I want to expand on the pro-life.

John, you have some thoughts on that?

-Well, again, I would just say, if you look at the most recent polling, this is very similar to what we've seen in prior election cycles, which is that sort of, the notion that Latinos are values voters here in Nevada is just not borne out by the data, unfortunately.

So I would respectfully disagree just from the standpoint of what the data is suggesting.

Abortion, the two most recent polls show the overwhelming majority of Latina disagree with the most recent Supreme Court decision, want abortion to be legal.

In terms of issues, values, issues, so to speak, have never shown up as being salient, and they're not showing up really in the most recent cycle, except on abortion.

And then when they probe that issue, it's in a way that suggests that people want abortion to be legal and really strongly disagree, regardless of their own personal beliefs.

So I don't know that these are going to motivate people in a way that people might think.

And again, I just keep coming back to the economy.

I think this, for Latinos, is really going to be the critical issues, you know, or which party is perceived and candidate being better on the economy.

And that will come down to jobs, I think, and inflation.

-Jose, I know you want to jump in.

I hope you're gonna say immigration has historically been an issue among-- -Historically, immigration has been an issue.

It's an issue that hasn't been resolved on the national level for over 30 years.

So you have businesses that are employing undocumented immigrants at very low pay, and that continues to go on.

We need to fix that.

So both parties need to come together like they did 30 years ago and fix that.

I'm gonna go back a little bit to education, because that's key and critical to the Latino population.

I was the first Latino to serve on the Clark County School Board back in 92-93.

And ever since then, I've had my foot on education, mostly in the background.

But education is what the families are looking for.

Education, a proper education, good job opportunities, this is what the Latino community is looking for.

Hey, I'm a Catholic myself.

I live my faith.

Okay?

But the Catholics I talk to, you know, they want a leader that looks like, you know, that looks like them, feels like them, and that the values is what they do, not what they say.

So the values that we're looking for as far as Latinos is which party, which candidates are going to give us job opportunities that are gonna help us support our families and have a bright future.

I have a granddaughter.

I got three granddaughters.

Four actually now.

And I want their future to be bright.

So the party that helps my grandkids are the party that I'm going to support.

But if neither one of them are doing it, I'm going to be in the background doing all I can like I did for Steve Wilson when he ran in the primary.

-I want to wrap up with this, because we have run out of time.

We've referred to the Pew Research Center a lot in this broadcast.

And in one of their reports on the 2020 election, there was this quote: To be sure, Hispanic voters are not a monolith; there is substantial diversity within the Hispanic electorate.

Thank you so much for watching Nevada Week this week.

For any of the resources discussed on this show, including a link to the Clark County Election website, go to vegaspbs.org/nevadaweek.

You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter @VegasPBS.

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